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AUSTRALIA: CPI & Spending Data Likely To Be The Focus Of The Week

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The highlights of the week are likely to be November CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. There are no RBA events.

  • Today final December S&P Global composite/services PMIs print. The preliminary reads were very close to the breakeven-50 level at 49.9 and 50.4 respectively, implying little if any growth.
  • November CPI is released on Wednesday and is likely to be watched closely ahead of Q4 data on January 29. It will also include more updates for services components than the October release. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting headline to pickup 0.1pp to 2.2%. Trimmed mean was 3.5% the previous month.
  • Retail sales for November are on Thursday and forecast to rise 1.0% m/m after 0.6% but that would see the annual rate drop due to base effects. This would be the 8th consecutive non-negative reading though suggesting some recovery. The series is due to be replaced by household spending around mid-year. The November update is out on Friday and projected to rise 0.6% m/m to be up 2.5% y/y after 0.8%/2.8%.
  • November building approvals are out on Tuesday and are expected to fall 1.0% m/m after the sharp 4.2% increase in October. The multi-dwelling component can make this series volatile.
  • December employment is published on January 16 but before then Q4 job vacancies are released on January 8. They have fallen every quarter since Q3 2022.
  • Also on Thursday November trade data print with the surplus expected to narrow slightly to $5.55bn. Lower commodity prices have weighed on export growth.
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The highlights of the week are likely to be November CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. There are no RBA events.

  • Today final December S&P Global composite/services PMIs print. The preliminary reads were very close to the breakeven-50 level at 49.9 and 50.4 respectively, implying little if any growth.
  • November CPI is released on Wednesday and is likely to be watched closely ahead of Q4 data on January 29. It will also include more updates for services components than the October release. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting headline to pickup 0.1pp to 2.2%. Trimmed mean was 3.5% the previous month.
  • Retail sales for November are on Thursday and forecast to rise 1.0% m/m after 0.6% but that would see the annual rate drop due to base effects. This would be the 8th consecutive non-negative reading though suggesting some recovery. The series is due to be replaced by household spending around mid-year. The November update is out on Friday and projected to rise 0.6% m/m to be up 2.5% y/y after 0.8%/2.8%.
  • November building approvals are out on Tuesday and are expected to fall 1.0% m/m after the sharp 4.2% increase in October. The multi-dwelling component can make this series volatile.
  • December employment is published on January 16 but before then Q4 job vacancies are released on January 8. They have fallen every quarter since Q3 2022.
  • Also on Thursday November trade data print with the surplus expected to narrow slightly to $5.55bn. Lower commodity prices have weighed on export growth.