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CPI Continues to Decelerate in May

SWITZERLAND DATA
MNI (London)

SWITZERLAND MAY CPI +0.3% M/M (= FCST); APR 0.0% M/M

SWITZERLAND MAY CPI +2.2% Y/Y (= FCST); APR +2.6% Y/Y

  • Swiss inflation is continued to cool in the May data, matching expectations with 0.3pp deceleration to +2.3% y/y, the lowest since Feb 2022.
  • On the month, prices re-accelerated by +0.3% m/m, largely on the back of increased housing, package holiday and food prices.
  • Total goods inflation rose +0.3% m/m (largely boosted by food), slowing 0.8pp to +2.7% y/y, whilst services accelerated by +0.2% m/m and ticked down 0.1pp to +1.8% y/y.
  • The Swiss core CPI rate was 0.1pp lower than expected, edging down 0.3pp to +1.9% y/y. This was the first sub-2% core print since Oct 2022 and is a positive sign of cooling price pressures for the Swiss National Bank.
  • Yet with headline CPI still above target, the June 22 SNB meeting baseline currently looks for a further 25bps hike. Markets are pricing a SNB peak rate of between 1.75% and 2.00%.
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