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INDIA: CPI Declines More than Expected in January. 

INDIA
IndiaEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market News
  • India’s CPI for January came in much lower than expected, vindicating the Central Bank’s cut in rates last week.
  • Having suffered a significant rise in inflation in October last year (driven by food prices) inflation had shown signs of moderating.
  • Following December’s +5.22% print, market expectations were for January prices to decline to +4.50%.
  • The CPI print of +4.31% vindicates the RBI rate cut as prices slowed by the most since August 2024.
  • Food price declines (the major reason for the spike higher) were -2.37% YoY and -2.90% MoM.
  • Other decliners were fuel and light prices down -1.38% YoY (from -1.33%)
  • The new RBI forecast projects that retail inflation for the 2025 financial year to be at 4.2%, and they expect to close out the current financial year with inflation at 4.8%.
  • The RBI Governor noted that the outlook requires “vigilance from the MPC to navigate the macroeconomic environment effectively, providing the committee with flexibility to adjust policies as needed,” he said post the decision to cut rates.
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  • India’s CPI for January came in much lower than expected, vindicating the Central Bank’s cut in rates last week.
  • Having suffered a significant rise in inflation in October last year (driven by food prices) inflation had shown signs of moderating.
  • Following December’s +5.22% print, market expectations were for January prices to decline to +4.50%.
  • The CPI print of +4.31% vindicates the RBI rate cut as prices slowed by the most since August 2024.
  • Food price declines (the major reason for the spike higher) were -2.37% YoY and -2.90% MoM.
  • Other decliners were fuel and light prices down -1.38% YoY (from -1.33%)
  • The new RBI forecast projects that retail inflation for the 2025 financial year to be at 4.2%, and they expect to close out the current financial year with inflation at 4.8%.
  • The RBI Governor noted that the outlook requires “vigilance from the MPC to navigate the macroeconomic environment effectively, providing the committee with flexibility to adjust policies as needed,” he said post the decision to cut rates.