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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- Since the last CBR meeting, markets have bolstered CBR rate hike bets with the bank chasing runaway pricing pressures and high second round effects from de-anchored expectations.
- The CBR delivered above expectations in October, hiking +75bp with markets having priced in just less than +50bp for the meeting with a +25bp option into year-end. 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads now reflect a tighter picture with an additional +117bp in hikes envisaged over a 3-6m period.
- In the prior statement, the CBR dropped phrasing surrounding an expectation for a 4Q21 moderation in CPI as price pressures continue to rise unabated towards the 8% mark - well above the CBR's 4% target. Similar to September, this is mostly reflective of fruit and vegetable prices.
- Most sell-side institutions foresee a further rise in headline CPI to 8.2-8.4% y/y in November, before more December's favourable base effects kick in to bring the FY number towards 7.8-8.00% - aided by a dissipation of the food shock and a firmer RUB.
3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spread
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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