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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
- Following this morning's slew of state CPIs, MNI sees the preliminary aggregate CPI print at +0.38% m/m and +7.94% y/y based on regional data accounting for 88.1% of the national headline number.
- The month-on-month acceleration is slightly stronger than the Bloomberg consensus which equated to a median of +0.35% m/m. Our forecasted annualised print sees a 0.1-pp faster acceleration than the median estimate, however the bimodality of the survey (+7.7% and +8.0%) implied relatively divided expectations.
- Half of the available state CPIs saw regional annualised levels break the threshold of 8.0% this month, albeit the majority seeing month-on-month inflation rates moderating.
- If confirmed, the +7.9% y/y headline number equals a 0.4pp acceleration on July, bringing CPI back to the May high (and post-reunification high) for Germany, essentially undoing two consecutive months of slowing prices.
- With core and headline inflation seeing no relief in August for both this morning's Spanish data and German data, the ECB remains geared towards another 50bp hike in September with the upside risk of 75bp becoming evermore likely (market pricing sees around a 50/50 chance).
Source: MNI / Individual State Databases
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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