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CPI Inflation Rises By 3.4% in July

CZECHIA
  • This morning, economic data showed that CPI inflation rose by 3.4% YoY in July (vs. 2.9% expected), up from 2.8% the previous month.
  • We have seen that the CNB board seems very concerned with inflation and is very likely to deliver a steep hiking cycle, raising rate at each of the last three meetings (which would bring the policy rate up to 1.5% by the end of the year).
  • USDCZK is lower this morning, currently testing its 200DMA at 21.58 level and gradually approaching its 21.5650 support, which corresponds to yesterday's low. Next level to watch on the downside stands at 21.50. On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 21.64.
  • Czech 10Y yield has been retracing slightly higher in the past few days, currently testing its 50DMA at 1.68%; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 1.74%. On the downside, key support remains at 1.60%.
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