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(M1) Approaching Key Support


(M1) Downtrend Extends


(M1) Key Support Zone Exposed


(M1) Clears Congestion Support


(M1) Bearish Activity Resumed

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Spot USD/PHP has faltered despite a miss in Philippine CPI as consumer prices unexpectedly rose at a steady pace in April. When this is being typed, USD/PHP changes hands -0.067 at PHP47.970, probing the wated below the PHP48.000 mark for the first time since Feb 16.

  • Headline CPI registered at +4.5% Y/Y in April, mimicking the March reading and undershooting expectations of +4.7%. Core CPI eased to +2.9% Y/Y from +3.5% recorded in March, while inflation in the NCR region remained at +3.7%.
  • BSP Gov Diokno commented that inflation is poised to remain elevated this year on the back of supply-side pressures, but will ease towards the target in 2022. He noted that inflation expectations are well anchored and expressed hope that pork import tariff cuts will help mitigate price pressures.
  • Tensions between the Philippines & China continue to simmer, as Manila said a unilateral fishing ban imposed by China does not apply to waters within the Philippine jurisdiction. Manila also said that it will continue patrols and maritime exercises in the disputed waters.
  • Philippine unemployment comes out Thursday, with trade balance coming up Friday. Latest money supply & bank lending data should hit the wires by the end of this week.
  • Bears keep an eye on the 61.8% retracement of the YtD rally at PHP47.943 and a break here would open up the 76.4% Fibo level/Feb 16 low at PHP47.751/47.721. Conversely, a jump above yesterday's high of PHP48.071 would shift focus to the 100-DMA at PHP48.285.

Fig. 1: Philippines CPI Y/Y (%)