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CPI Misses In Germany & Spain Fuel Hopes For Inflation Slowdown In Poland

POLAND

Economists expect Poland's CPI inflation to have accelerated from +17.9% Y/Y to +18.0% Y/Y this month, according to a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists (forecast range: 17.6%-19.0%), albeit today's below-forecast data from Germany and Spain have prompted some sell-side analysts to forecast softer prints out of Poland.

  • The research desk of mBank expects that "tomorrow inflation slows significantly from +17.9% Y/Y to +17.5% Y/Y." For core inflation, they expect a slight acceleration from +11.0% Y/Y to +11.2% Y/Y, while admitting that it's a bold forecast.
  • Pekao says they expect headline inflation to decelerate from +17.9% Y/Y to 17.7% Y/Y, with core inflation picking up from +11.0% Y/Y to +11.4% Y/Y.
  • Bank Pocztowy chief economist told PAP newswire that "inflation stabilisation or a slight decline, combined with calming down of sentiment on global markets, may stabilise the prices of the Polish debt or even strengthen it."
  • Preliminary November CPI readings will be published along final Q3 GDP data tomorrow at 0900GMT/1000CET.
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