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CPI Monthly Undershoots Expectations, ACGBs Extend Rally

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +13.0 & XM +10.0) add 4-6bps to morning strength after October’s CPI monthly printed on the low side of expectations at 4.9% y/y versus 5.2% est and 5.6% prior. Fuel was a big contributor to the outcome.

  • One word of caution around this print is that ABS doesn't update certain service prices in the first month of a new quarter. Hence this may be overstating the extent of the fall.
  • Also released, Q3 Total Construction rises 1.3% q/q versus +0.3% est.
  • Cash ACGBs are 8-12bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at +10bps.
  • Swap rates are 9-12bps lower on the day, 4-7bps lower post-data. The 3s10s curve is steeper.
  • The bills strip has extended the overnight bull-flattening, with pricing +1 to +16bp.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-13bps softer on the day across meetings, after being flat to 5bps softer in early dealings.
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