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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Japan Q3 GDP To Be Slightly Revised Down
CPI Preview: Shelter And Core Measures Remain Key
- Tomorrow’s CPI report for Dec comes fresh after BoC surveys indicated an economy running close to capacity in further evidence after a strong jobs report two weeks ago.
- Bloomberg consensus has headline up 0.1pps to 4.8% Y/Y, in a close call with an equal number of analysts seeing 4.9% Y/Y (mean 4.84% Y/Y). Most expect the non-seasonally adjusted rate at -0.1% M/M or 0.0% M/M.
- As for the BoC’s various core measures, limited survey responses imply the average of the three could edge up 0.1pp on rounding to 2.8% Y/Y, led by CPI-common which has lagged the surge in inflation at just 2.0% Y/Y in Nov.
- There is two-way risk going into this release with OIS pricing in roughly a 70% chance of a hike in Jan rather than waiting until March.
- A strong print with rises in the underlying core measures could see a Jan hike largely cemented with a further rise in shorter-term yields and a return of USDCAD declines, whilst a particularly weak print could well push the BoC to wait until March whilst it assess Omicron uncertainties.
- Some sell-side previews can be found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/13517/CanadaCPIPrevJan2022.pdf
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.