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CPI Provides Highlight Of Local Docket This Week, Russia Probe Panel Back On Agenda

POLAND
  • There is growing conviction that the NBP will cut interest rates soon, with market participants looking for Thursday's flash CPI data to confirm these expectations, as a single-digit reading could prompt the central bank to take action as soon as next month. In their updated macro forecast, mBank pencil in the first 25bp rate cut for September, but warn that the central bank could walk back on some monetary easing within a year amid lack of progress in fighting inflation. ING believe that the NBP will cut interest rates next month even if inflation does not fall below +10% Y/Y due to the weakness in consumption in 2Q2023 and a disappointing start to 3Q2023 in domestic economy. PKO remind that the MPC holds a non-decision meeting today to take stock of recent data and discuss possible scenarios ahead of the September 12-13 rate decision.
  • Business Insider circulated a report suggesting that the combined spending of public institutions which prepare their own budgets will reach PLN19.5bn in 2024, an increase by over 20% from this year. The budgets of these institutions are not drafted by the Finance Ministry and can only be amended in parliament. The largest increases were proposed by the National Broadcasting Council, Data Protection Commission, Supreme Court and Supreme Audit Office.
  • Rzeczpospolita reports that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party reversed its earlier decision to hold off on the establishment of a controversial panel probing Russian political influence in Poland, widely seen as a tool to grill opposition politicians. The Speaker has now asked parliamentary caucuses to nominate their candidates to the commission, with PiS sources suggesting that the about-face came after the opposition declared success in stopping the initiative. PiS are expected to name their nominees to the panel today and Rzeczpospolita sources suggested that the line-up will include some "controversial" figures.
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