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CPI Survey Skewed To Above BoC Forecast

CANADA
  • Released at 0830ET, the Bloomberg median has headline CPI inflation rising from 5.7% to 6.1% Y/Y - anything higher nudges above what the BoC had implied in its freshly revised inflation projection for Q1.
  • The range of the typically small survey however is 5.8-6.5% with an average of 6.2% Y/Y.
  • Energy and food are again seen adding significantly to headline along with housing costs, with focus as always on whether underlying pressures have continued to broaden.
  • There’s no reliable survey for the main three core measures but BMO expect a 0.1-0.2pt rise and CIBC also look for a further upward move. The average increased strongly in Jan and Feb, rising 50bps to 3.5% (target range 1-3%).
  • Along with the average, watch CPI-common as a better indicator of underlying service strength with it being less sensitive to global supply disruptions (currently 2.6% Y/Y), plus the sequential run rates for the separate ex-volatiles measure.
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