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CPI Takeaways: Softer Housing, Non-Housing Services Supported By Volatile Items [1/2]

US DATA
  • Housing saw the largest downside surprise in the March CPI release, with OER and primary rents easing to 0.48/0.49% M/M for the softest pace since Apr/Mar’22.
  • Core services ex housing softened from 0.50% to 0.40% M/M, or a more pronounced 0.45 to 0.25% M/M when stripping out all shelter including another surprisingly strong lodging increase of 3.1%.
  • Combined with airfares increasing another 4.0% after 6.4% in Feb (with a reminder that tomorrow's PPI airfares matter for PCE, the Feb release of which didn’t show any of CPI’s strength), it’s notable that two of the largest outright contributions of monthly core ex-housing inflation are from volatile categories which could struggle to maintain current strength ahead.
  • Medical care service components that can be a more helpful guide for PCE healthcare were mixed meanwhile, with professional services at 0.0% after -0.3% M/M but hospital services -0.2% after +0.1% M/M.

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