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CPIF lower than expected

SWEDEN
  • First look at that Swedish CPIF data is that it's not as high as feared, both on headline and ex energy. This follows a fall back to June levels for the Prospera inflation expectations data yesterday.
  • If both yesterday's and today's data both came out stronger than expected there had been some expectations that the Riksbank might have considered an intermeeting hike as soon as this morning. The probability of that has now fallen back substantially but a 50bp or larger hike at the 20 September meeting still looks very much on the cards.
  • EURSEK is largely back to prevailing levels after an initial dip lower.
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