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CRBT Expected To Keep Rates on Hold On May 26

TURKEY
  • The CBRT is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 14% on May 26 despite de-anchoring inflation expectations and the TRY weakness.
    • CBRT recently reviewed its year-end inflation forecast to the upside to 58% (from 46% previously).
  • USDTRY broke above the 16 resistance yesterday and is currently trading at its highest level since December 2021; next level to watch on the topside stands at 16.4490, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 10.2510 – 18.3630.
  • Credit risk has also been rising (along with TRY weakness), with the 5Y CDS currently trading above the March highs at 730bps.
  • The TRY weakness has been weighing on domestic risky assets, with the XY100 consolidating lower, currently trading below the 2,400 level; ST support to watch on the downside stands at 2,338.10 (50DMA).
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