Credit Agricole Revise Their NBP Rate Scenario, Now See Cuts Only In 2H25

Credit Agricole write in their weekly note that the ruling coalition's plan to put NBP Governor Adam Glapinski on trial will further lower his appetite for loosening monetary policy, which would stimulate economic activity and could be beneficial to the government. Meanwhile, the sources of uncertainty around the inflation outlook mentioned by the Governor earlier remain in force, while the expected revival of GDP growth amid already fast wage growth will be a pro-inflationary factor.

• Considering all these factors, Credit Agricole scrap their call for a resumption of rate cuts this year. They now expect a cumulative 50bp worth of cuts only in 2H2025. The higher rate path coupled with the release of EU funds earmarked for Poland support their forecast of a gradual zloty appreciation.