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CREDIT MACRO: Metals: Under Pressure

CREDIT MACRO
  • The Third Plenum lacked measures to support China’s beleaguered property sector adding to pressure on iron ore and copper.
  • The long-term demand thesis for copper is well known due to the energy transition; shorter term inventories are building. The “Dr Copper” indicator doesn’t hold as much weight in today’s economy as it once did, but it does reflect construction activity in China.
  • Lithium prices have already cratered with the slower pace of EV adoption and heavy investment leaving the battery component oversupplied in the short term, while the long term bull case is clear.

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