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CREDIT SUPPLY: ALVGR: Sr Unsec Issue - We See FV At MS+50bp Area

CREDIT SUPPLY

Allianz (ALVGR: Aa2/AA/AA-) is issuing a long 5Y senior unsecured today, we see fair value at MS+50bp area.

Allianz is issuing EUR600m (WNG) long 5-year senior unsecured from Alliance Finance II BV (ALVGR) with IPT at MS+80bp area. Expected ratings are Aa2/AA.

  • 1Q24 results (15-May) showed a small operating profit beat with positive forward guidance, albeit the Solvency II ratio was slightly below expectations (203% vs. 207%e).
  • Allianz, at the short end, trades wide to Axa but, with the only adjacent Allianz bonds being very low coupon/price, this curve is more distorted at this workout point. Most of the similarly-rated Europeans are tight of the Berkshire Hathaway curves, so we can see fair value here being inside BRK. The Allianz parent curve is all fairly low coupon, so we don’t see fair value here on that curve but slightly wide at around MS

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