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Free AccessCREDIT SUPPLY: Santander USD AT1 Raise: We See Fair Value Around 7.75% Yield
Santander (SANTAN: Baa1 pos/A-/A-) raising AT1 this morning; we see fair value around 7.75% yield area.
- Santander is raising USD benchmark AT1 PerpNC10 with IPT at 8.375% area. Expected ratings: Ba1/BBB-.
- Using a 10Y SOFR OIS of 3.74%, gives an IPT at MS+464bp. Santander only has three USD AT1s (and one is older, lower coupon) so the curve is remarkably flat. However, looking at similarly rated StanChart and Barclays gives a slope approaching 15-20bp per year at the longer-end.
- Using the SANTAN 9.625% at 8.8yrs workout and MS+380bp, we can see fair value being as tight at MS+400bp, which is around 7.75% yield.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.