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CREDIT SUPPLY: Santander USD AT1 Raise: We See Fair Value Around 7.75% Yield

CREDIT SUPPLY

Santander (SANTAN: Baa1 pos/A-/A-) raising AT1 this morning; we see fair value around 7.75% yield area.

  • Santander is raising USD benchmark AT1 PerpNC10 with IPT at 8.375% area. Expected ratings: Ba1/BBB-.
  • Using a 10Y SOFR OIS of 3.74%, gives an IPT at MS+464bp. Santander only has three USD AT1s (and one is older, lower coupon) so the curve is remarkably flat. However, looking at similarly rated StanChart and Barclays gives a slope approaching 15-20bp per year at the longer-end.
  • Using the SANTAN 9.625% at 8.8yrs workout and MS+380bp, we can see fair value being as tight at MS+400bp, which is around 7.75% yield.

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