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CROSS ASSET: Trump Trade Pullbacks Supported As EU/London Cross Over Approaches

CROSS ASSET
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As we approach the EU/London cross-over we are seeing some Trump related trades sit off Asia Pac highs, albeit only marginally and pullbacks looked to be supported. 

  • Uncertainty around whether the Republicans will achieve a clean sweep may be tempering the market outlook slightly. The Decision Desk HQ has Trump at 92% probability for the Presidency, but the House race has drifted in favour of the Democrats, las 57%. Still, a final outcome may take some time to determine. Earlier FoxNews projected the Republicans to control the Senate.
  • The USD BBDXY index was last 1270, still up 1.25% for the session. Earlier highs were at 1273.76, close to earlier YTD highs. USD/JPY pulled back 100pips off earlier highs, but has found support, last near 153.60. EUR/USD is up to 1.0765 (session lows were 1.0719).
  • USD/CNH is back under 7.1800, but still 1% weaker for the term in yuan terms. while MXN losses were beyond 3% at one stage, but now are around 2.6%, (last near 20.65).
  • Bitcoin is near 74.5k, still up nearly 8%, but also just off highs above 75k.
  • The US 10yr yield got as high as 4.465%, but is now back to 4.395%. Gains across the benchmarks are still 8-13bps, with a steepening bias.
  • US equity futures are also away from best levels, Eminis still +1% firmer though. the regional equity backdrop is mixed, with Hong Kong markets down sharply, but Japan outperforming.
  • Gold is down slightly, while metals are hold -2% losses for copper and iron ore. Oil is also weaker. 
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As we approach the EU/London cross-over we are seeing some Trump related trades sit off Asia Pac highs, albeit only marginally and pullbacks looked to be supported. 

  • Uncertainty around whether the Republicans will achieve a clean sweep may be tempering the market outlook slightly. The Decision Desk HQ has Trump at 92% probability for the Presidency, but the House race has drifted in favour of the Democrats, las 57%. Still, a final outcome may take some time to determine. Earlier FoxNews projected the Republicans to control the Senate.
  • The USD BBDXY index was last 1270, still up 1.25% for the session. Earlier highs were at 1273.76, close to earlier YTD highs. USD/JPY pulled back 100pips off earlier highs, but has found support, last near 153.60. EUR/USD is up to 1.0765 (session lows were 1.0719).
  • USD/CNH is back under 7.1800, but still 1% weaker for the term in yuan terms. while MXN losses were beyond 3% at one stage, but now are around 2.6%, (last near 20.65).
  • Bitcoin is near 74.5k, still up nearly 8%, but also just off highs above 75k.
  • The US 10yr yield got as high as 4.465%, but is now back to 4.395%. Gains across the benchmarks are still 8-13bps, with a steepening bias.
  • US equity futures are also away from best levels, Eminis still +1% firmer though. the regional equity backdrop is mixed, with Hong Kong markets down sharply, but Japan outperforming.
  • Gold is down slightly, while metals are hold -2% losses for copper and iron ore. Oil is also weaker.