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Cross/JPY Strengthening Towards Cycle Highs Amid Higher US Yields

FOREX
  • Pressure on US treasury futures has been weighing on the Japanese Yen to start the week, with markets turning their focus to a speech by Fed Chair Powell this week. USDJPY has risen 0.27% as we approach the APAC crossover, crossing back above 150.52, with the year’s highs just 40 pips away at 150.89.
  • Moderate outperformance for sterling sees GBPJPY (+0.59%) edging closer to last week’s highs of 191.32, also representing the highest level for the cross since 2015.
  • NZDJPY underwent a corrective pullback last week, shedding ~2% off the cycle high of 93.45 and pushing the RSI well back below the overbought technical condition. Nonetheless, the trend condition remains positive, and positioning dynamics point to continued gains in the cross.
  • CFTC reports since the turn of the year show continued evidence of the NZD net position improving (coinciding with building expectations that the RBNZ policy cycle may not be at its peak), while the JPY position deteriorates.
  • Elsewhere, the Swiss Franc reversed some very moderate strength in the aftermath of above-estimate CPI data. The brief EURCHF dip to 0.9572 proved short-lived, with some single currency strength assisting the reversal back above the 0.96 handle.
  • Data overnight includes Tokyo CPI and China’s Caixin Services PMI. Focus then turns to US ISM Services PMI. Later in the week, centra bank decisions from Canada and the ECB are highlights, as well as the US employment report.
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