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Cross Plumbs New YTD Lows, Nearing Technically Oversold

EURGBP
  • A fourth consecutive session of lower lows for EUR/GBP as the cross continues to push to new YTD lows. 0.8600 now marks the 2023 low as rate differentials really come into play - ECB implied pricing rolled over alongside the soft French, German inflation prints today - contrasting with the stickier inflation outlook for the UK.
  • The 14d RSI for the cross is on the cusp of becoming technically oversold for the first time since March 2021 - and bearish developments in the DMA space also signal short-term downside momentum: the 50- and 200-dmas are on the verge of forming a death cross (50-dma < 200-dma).
  • Housing data will be eyed tomorrow morning for any additional evidence of higher mortgage costs feeding through to the UK economy. Property transaction data released today showed a sharp slowdown in residential housing transactions - falling 25% in April.
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