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Crude Backwardation Strengthens as Front Month Rallies

OIL

Crude time spreads are strengthening towards highs from last week as the front month rallies towards the recent range highs ahead of the holiday tomorrow.

  • Front month Brent has been bouncing in the $85.06/bbl to $87.7/bbl range since March 18. Focus remains on Middle East tensions and Russia energy infrastructure strikes while watching for any indications of future OPEC+ plans ahead of the JMMC meeting next week.
  • Expectation of a market deficit in Q2 due to tighter supply and potential Fed easing this year continue to support crude backwardation. The Brent Jun24-Dec24 time spread is today up to $4.39/bbl having rallied from below $1/bbl in December. The spread reached a high of 4.53$/bbl on Mar. 19.
  • The prompt Brent spread has today rallied near to the highest since Mar. 4.
  • Technicals show the trend structure remains bullish with first Brent resistance at the Mar. 19 high of 86.92$/bbl and support at the 20 day EMA of 84.06$/bbl.
    • Brent JUN 24 up 1.1% at 86.34$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24 up 1.4% at 82.5$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-JUL 24 up 0.1$/bbl at 0.8$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.36$/bbl at 4.36$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24-JUN 24 up 0.11$/bbl at 0.68$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.42$/bbl at 4.4$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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