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Crude Backwardation Strengthens Further on Expected Supply Deficit

OIL

The crude prompt time spread has eased back slightly after surging to a high of 1.7$/bbl earlier today reflecting the tight supplies and market expectation for a market deficit in Q4.

  • The Dec23-Dec24 spread is maintaining the recent gains up towards the highs from last week of just over 10$/bbl with Saudi and Russia export cuts the primary driver of the strong curve backwardation.
  • Saudi Arabia may continue to extend its additional unilateral reduction to keep the market relatively tight according to Bloomberg. The OPEC+ output cuts are designed to preemptively protect against a weakening economic outlook and any slowdown in energy-demand growth.
  • OPEC+'s defensive stance and improved demand in China form a constructive backdrop for prices later this year and US Fed policy moves remain a key driver of oil-price sentiment according to Bloomberg.
    • Brent NOV 23 up 0.7% at 94.59$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 23 up 0.9% at 91.21$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent up 0.19$/bbl at -3.36$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.1$/bbl at 1.63$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.44$/bbl at 9.84$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.19$/bbl at 1.8$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.54$/bbl at 10.89$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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