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Crude Consolidates Last Week’s Strong Gains Ahead Of Output Announcements

COMMODITIES
  • Crude prices have edged higher today on holiday-thinned volumes. It consolidates stronger gains from the end of last week on falling Saudi Arabian crude exports and expectations that Russia and Saudi Arabia could prolong cuts with both nations expected to announce output cuts for October this week.
  • Crude and diesel managed money net long positions remained relatively unchanged on the week with a decline in Brent positions offsetting an increase in WTI positions according to Commitments of Traders data released on Friday. The combined net long positions for Brent and WTI increased by +2k to 351k.
  • Global crude oil supplies are expected to improve in the next six to eight weeks because of refinery maintenance according to Vitol CEO Russell Hardy.
  • The fair price for oil is $72-88/bbl but there are still risks that could support prices further, Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at Trafigura said during the APPEC. The outlook for crude demand from the key importer China remains uncertain and is one of the topics in focus at the APPEC conference this week.
  • WTI is +0.4% at $85.88. Technicals are seen northbound with resistance at $86.62 (1.382 proj of Jun 28 – Jul 13 – Jul 17 price swing).
  • Brent is +0.5% at $89.00. Bulls remain in the drivers’ seat having cleared Friday’s $88.99 to open the round $90.
  • Gold meanwhile is +0.1% at $1942.69 with the yellow metal remaining within Friday’s range. The current uptrend is seen intact with resistance at Friday’s $1953.0 after which lies $1963.3 (76.4% retrace of Jul 20 – Aug 21 bear leg).
Energy BulletsCommodities
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