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Crude Continues Decline, Questioning Effectiveness Of OPEC Cuts

OIL

Oil prices fell around a percent on Monday to be down over 5% since Wednesday, the day before the OPEC announcement. There is significant uncertainty over quota compliance while non-OPEC output remains strong. The rise in the dollar also weighed on crude (USD index +0.4%).

  • WTI is down 1% to $73.31/bbl off the intraday low of $72.63. It is now 5.8% lower than Wednesday. Support is at the bear trigger of $72.37, November 16 low.
  • Brent is 0.8% lower at $78.23/bbl, after a low of $77.52, to be down 5.5% since before the OPEC+ decision. Support and bear trigger is at $76.71.
  • Comments from the Saudi energy minister that cuts can easily be extended beyond Q1 2024 provided only a temporary pickup in the market.
  • The US is planning to replenish the SPR as much as it can at current low prices, according to Bloomberg. There are some structural barriers though.

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