Crude Down Again As Waits For Fed And OPEC Outcomes

Oil prices are lower again today after falling 2.4% on Monday, despite positive China data. WTI is down another 0.4% during the APAC session and is currently trading around its intraday low at $77.60/bbl after reaching an intraday high of $78.14. Brent is at $84.85/bbl.

• WTI is around its 50-day simple moving average and Brent its 100-day. WTI broke through support of $78.45 and the next level to watch is $72.74, the January 5 low, and for Brent watch $82.37, the January 12 low. This month global growth fears have outweighed the improved China demand outlook but there is optimism with money managers building net-long Brent positions to their largest in 11 months (bbg).
• US API inventory data are released today, which have recently been showing rising crude stocks. But Bloomberg reported that there could be a gasoline shortage over much of the US East Coast during the summer driving season due to the EU ban on Russian oil products possibly impacting US supplies. Russia has also banned sales of crude to any countries applying the price cap.
• Later today there is preliminary euro area Q4 GDP and in the US Q4 employment cost index, Chicago PMI and November house prices. On Wednesday the Fed meets and is expected to hike rates 25bp (see MNI Fed Preview). OPEC+ also meets Wednesday.