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Crude Edges Back to Positive Amid Supply Risks


Front month Brent regains earlier losses back to positive on the day with time spreads also edging back upwards. Focus remains on the upside risk from an escalation in the Israel conflict with any potential impact of Iran supply likely to be greater than any boost to Venezuela production amid easing US sanctions.

  • The WTI-Brent spread has widened again back to -4.21$/bbl with Brent seeing more strength than WTI. Brent net long positioning gained last week amid the Middle East risks, but WTI net longs fell before the Nov contract expiry last week.
  • The Brent Dec23 contract bull cycle remains in play with the next resistance at Oct 20 high of 93.79$/bbl and the key bull trigger at Sep 28 high of 95.35$/bbl.
    • Brent DEC 23 up 0.1% at 92.27$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 23 down 0% at 88.04$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down -0.15$/bbl at -4.22$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-JAN 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 1.29$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 unchanged at 1.12$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.18$/bbl at 8.81$/bbl

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