Crude Edges Higher Ahead of OPEC Cut Decision Tomorrow

Crude continues to edge higher with focus on the expected cut to OPEC+ production targets at their meeting tomorrow. The latest reports suggest a cut in excess of 1mbpd, excluding any voluntary cuts, is being considered. The cuts will be considered to try to stabilise the market amid growing concerns for global demand growth and to halt the recent price decline. The OPEC meeting tomorrow is the first in person meeting since Mar 2020 and will be followed by a press conference.

• Brent DEC 22 up 0.5% at 89.27$/bbl
• WTI NOV 22 up 0.3% at 83.86$/bbl
• Gasoil OCT 22 up 1% at 1041.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.06$/bbl at -6.33$/bbl
• The crude time spreads are supported by the potential reduction in global supplies despite the already tight market and limited spare capacity. Spreads are trading at their highest since late August. A 1mbpd cut to targets would translate into a smaller real cut with many OPEC members already struggling to meet current target levels.
  • Brent DEC 22-JAN 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 1.93$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.17$/bbl at 11.86$/bbl
• Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are slightly stronger today with refinery outages still high and with concern for future supplies with the implementation of the EU ban on Russian seaborne products next year. The prompt Gasoil time spread has rallied to 60$/mt and the highest since mid July.
  • US 321 crack up 0.2$/bbl at 34.32$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack up 0.6$/bbl at 22.55$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 57.95$/bbl