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Crude Extends Pull Back Amid Firmer US Dollar

OIL

Crude markets are extending the pull back today from a high of 87.7$/bbl on Mar. 19 amid a sharp recovery in the greenback, with the USD spot index up another 0.27% on the day.

    • Brent MAY 24 down 0.6% at 85.25$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24 down 0.6% at 80.56$/bbl
    • Gasoil APR 24 up 0.2% at 822.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -4.69$/bbl
  • Risk sentiment has improved with a firmer USD back above pre FOMC levels after a surprise interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank to weigh on crude prices.
  • A potential market deficit in Q2 following the extended OPEC+ output cuts and geopolitical risks from the Middle East and Russia are still supportive.
  • Israel indicated it would invade Rafah no matter what the US says according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday he believed negotiation could reach an Israel/Hamas ceasefire agreement with talks centred on a truce of about six weeks.
  • Houthi rebels in Yemen also reportedly told Russia and China that its vessels will not be targeted in the red sea as they move through the area.
    • Brent MAY 24-JUN 24 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down 0.15$/bbl at 3.75$/bbl
  • Prompt Brent time spreads are the lowest since Mar. 13 but are still showing a trend of steepening backwardation so far this year reflecting concern for tighter supplies. The Jun24-Dec24 spread is also softening to 3.74$/bbl having increased from 0.46$/bbl in mid December up to a high of 4.6$/bbl on Mar. 19.
  • Diesel crack spreads have fallen this week from a high on Mar. 18 but gasoline cracks have found support from signs of improving demand and below-normal stock levels.
    • US gasoline crack up 1.1$/bbl at 32.82$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 30.36$/bbl
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