Crude Falls Back with Economic Growth in Focus

Crude has fallen nearly 6% in the last two days as economic growth comes into focus ahead of the US Fed rate decision tomorrow. US Fed is expected to raise rates again but could potentially be approaching the end of rate tightening soon. Growth concerns offset the optimism for Chinese oil demand and uncertainty over Russia output after new sanctions on 5 Feb.

• Brent APR 23 down -0.3% at 84.27$/bbl
• WTI MAR 23 down -0.4% at 77.6$/bbl
• Gasoil FEB 23 down -1.2% at 898.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.01$/bbl at -7.28$/bbl
• The OPEC JMMC advisory committee meet on 1 Feb but are expected to keep oil production levels unchanged.
• Russian supply risks and potential demand recovery are supporting the curve backwardation. The prompt spread is holding steady having rallied over the last week ahead of the March future contract expiry today.
  • Brent APR 23-MAY 23 unchanged at 0.36$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.14$/bbl at 2.94$/bbl
• Refined product crack spreads are steady after following crude lower, especially diesel. Tight supply concerns supported the spreads earlier this month, but prices have fallen back over the last week on weak demand and robust Russian output.
• Russian refinery runs remain high and planned Russian diesel exports are increasing despite the upcoming EU ban. EU imports of diesel remain high as Europe is building storage levels before the ban starts. With Russian supplies missing the EU will have to find alternative sources of diesel, naphtha and fuel oil for gasoline blending.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 27.34$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 51.25$/bbl