Crude Finding Support but Still Down on the Week

Crude seeing small gains so far today to continue the slight recovery after seeing Brent front month fall to a low of 82$/bbl yesterday.

• Brent OCT 23 up 0.4% at 83.72$/bbl
• WTI OCT 23 up 0.5% at 79.43$/bbl
• Gasoil SEP 23 up 0.9% at 924.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -4.29$/bbl
• Optimism regarding oil supplies from the sanctioned countries of Iran and Venezuela, and hope for a return of Iraqi flows via Turkey could help to ease the tight supply deficit driven by the wider OPEC+ group production cuts. Analysts estimated that Saudi Arabia will likely extend a voluntary cut of 1mbpd for a third consecutive month into October.
• Recent poor economic data in China has been weighing on the market with a continued recovery in the country a key factor in global demand growth.
• Upside has been limited by the stronger US dollar amid concern for inflation and the impact on a potential extension to the US rate tightening cycle. Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Powell may shed some light on the chance on further rate hikes.
  • Brent OCT 23-NOV 23 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.46$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.13$/bbl at 4.17$/bbl
• Time spreads are edging higher to recover much of the losses seen earlier this week with concern for tight supplies and a drawdown in global inventories. The prompt Brent is up from a low of 0.26$/bbl on 23 Aug back up to 0.46$/bbl today.
• Diesel and gasoline markets again edged higher with low global inventories and tight supplies supporting prices. US distillates stocks were little change in data this week and European ARA Gasoil stocks yesterday dipped slightly lower with both well below normal.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 28.96$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 52.64$/bbl