Crude Finished The Week Higher, Prices Lower Today On Gaza Truce Talks

Oil prices were up slightly to end the week higher on more positive supply/demand fundamentals, further Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and continued Middle East uncertainty. The higher-than-expected US March core PCE inflation weighed on crude during US trading as a delay to Fed easing is seen as impacting oil demand. The resultant stronger greenback also tempered the recovery in prices (USD index +0.3%).

• WTI rose 0.1% to $83.66/bbl on Friday to be up 1.8% on the week but has started this week lower at $83.40. There have been reports of progress on an Israel/Hamas truce which may be reducing the geopolitical risk premium today.
• Key short-term support for WTI is at $81.03, 50-day EMA. A clear break of this would be needed to signal scope for a deeper retracement. It fell to a low of $83.35 on Friday. The bull trigger is at $86.97.
• Brent increased 0.3% to $88.06 on Friday after a low of $87.62 which followed a high of $88.64. It was also 1.8% higher on the week. It is currently around $87.75. Initial support is at $85.88, 50-day EMA, and a clear break of this is needed to signal a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at $92.18 and clearance of this would resume the uptrend.
• Ukraine struck the Russian Slavyansk oil refinery resulting in its activity being partially suspended.
• Declining refining margins in Asia, which is expected in Europe too, are likely to reduce demand for crude.