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Crude Front Month Eases as Backwardation Softens

OIL

Crude front month is edging lower but still within the trading range seen so far this week with upside geopolitical risk set against a possible delay to Fed cuts this year, weak economic momentum in China and another possible rise in U.S. crude inventories in EIA data due later today.

  • Technical analysis shows Brent futures are in consolidation mode as the latest pause appears to be a bull flag. First Brent Jun24 resistance at the April 12 high of $92.18/bbl and support at the 20 day EMA of $88.28/bbl.
  • Crude backwardation continues to soften after the rally in time spreads seen at the start of April. The prompt spread has pulled back from a high of 1.08$/bbl on April 2 back to $0.71/bbl while the Jun24-Dec24 spread is down from $5.73/bbl to $4.17/bbl.
    • Brent JUN 24 down 0.9% at 89.17$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24 down 1% at 84.5$/bbl
    • Gasoil MAY 24 down 1.2% at 808.25$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.04$/bbl at -5.14$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-JUL 24 down 0.07$/bbl at 0.72$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down 0.34$/bbl at 4.17$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24-JUN 24 down 0.06$/bbl at 0.47$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 down 0.36$/bbl at 4.07$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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