Crude Higher on China Data and Russia Refinery Attacks

Crude is edging higher again today after a rally last week to the highest since November ahead of the US Fed meeting later this week. Upside comes from improved global demand forecast and an escalation in attacks on Russian refineries to add to the tight supplies due to OPEC+ cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

• Brent MAY 24 up 0.6% at 85.81$/bbl
• WTI APR 24 up 0.6% at 81.55$/bbl
• Gasoil APR 24 up 1.3% at 849.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.02$/bbl at -4.72$/bbl
• Risk appetite has improved as China’s factory output and fixed asset investment rose more than expected in January-February. Chine crude processing rose to a record and 3% higher y/y in Jan and Feb as refineries increased operations to meet holiday demand.
• Last week saw further Ukraine drone strikes on Russian refining facilities and over the weekend Russia’s defence ministry said it had destroyed drones targeting refineries in a number of regions. Rosneft’s Syzran refinery shut down its primary oil refining unit after an attack on Saturday Mar. 16.
  • Brent MAY 24-JUN 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.62$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.17$/bbl at 4.01$/bbl
• Crude time spreads eased slightly lower on Friday but backwardation remains strong with the Jun24-Dec24 spread just below the highs from the start of March. Rising US exports to Europe have helped ease tight supply concerns in Europe.
• Diesel cracks spreads are extending gains supported by the Russian refinery outages to offset recent weakness in US demand and signs of a recovery in US run rates.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 32.93$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 1$/bbl at 34.44$/bbl