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Crude Hits 10-Month High Following Monthly OPEC Report

COMMODITIES
  • Crude has seen strong gains today, with brent rallying to its highest since Nov. 17 after the OPEC monthly oil market report shows demand predictions are largely unchanged from last month (oil demand in 2023 rising by 2.4mbpd and then 2.2mbpd in 2024).
  • Vortexa figures showed that Saudi Arabia drastically cut crude/condensate exports in August, by even more than 1mbd vs July, and by 1.6mbd vs the average over 2022 and H1 2023. Reduced availability of Saudi Arabia crude to refiners in Asia is supporting the medium sour crude grades.
  • The EIA’s forecast for average prices in Q4 2023 for WTI rose by 2.4% to $79.65/bbl, while the Brent price increased by 2.2% to $84.46/bbl. “A decline in global oil inventories in the coming months supports the Brent price in our forecast. The price eases to an average of $87/b by the second half of 2024 because we expect global oil inventories to rise during that period”.
  • WTI is +1.9% at $88.96 off a high of $89.37, clearing $88.15 (Sep 6 high) and stepping closer to the pyschological $90.
  • Brent is +1.65% at $92.15 off a high of $92.40, clearing $91.45 (Sep 11 high) and stepping closer to $92.91 (Nov 17, 2022 high, cont).
  • Gold is -0.5% at $1912.97, hindered by some further net USD appreciation but a surprisingly large drop considering modest moves in Treasury yields. It’s off a high of $1907.71 that saw a sizeable step towards support at $1903.9 (Aug 25 low).
Energy BulletsCommodities
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