Crude Holding Gains Ahead of IEA Report and US CPI Data

Brent crude is trading in a narrow range so far today after a strong rally yesterday driven by a higher oil demand growth forecast from the OPEC MOMR released yesterday. The report suggested a positive outlook for demand despite exaggerated negative sentiment. The updated IEA monthly oil report is due out at 10am CET today.

• Brent JAN 24 up 0.2% at 82.68$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 up 0.2% at 78.4$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 up 0.2% at 815$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.05$/bbl at -4.34$/bbl
• A potential crack-down on those violating the G7 price cap on Russian oil also added upside after the US Treasury sent notices to 30 ship management companies requesting information about around 100 vessels that may be in breach of the $60/bbl price cap sanctions.
• Today’s US CPI release will also be in focus with concern for demand growth in US as well as China and Europe. A stronger print would be negative for crude as it may signal further Fed tightening, which could impact energy demand.
• The US energy department plans to buy 1.2mbbls of oil at 77.57$/bbl to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.37$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 2.03$/bbl
• Time spreads have also seen a slight recovery with the WTI prompt spread back in positive territory after falling into contango last week.
• Diesel and gasoline cracks gained ground yesterday following the gains in crude futures. The US gasoline crack has seen a gradual rebound from around 7.48$/bbl on 13 Oct to 15.55$/bbl but remains well below levels between 35-40$/bbl earlier this year.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 15.52$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 40.63$/bbl