Crude Holding Gains from Yesterday on Potential Tighter Balance

Crude is holding steady today after pushing up to new highs for the month yesterday to the highest since January. Crude rallied with a weaker US dollar and following the below estimated US CPI data although many analysts still expect another 25bp rate hike in May. Tighter supply concerns and US hopes to refill the US SPR if it's advantageous to taxpayers also supported prices.

• Brent JUN 23 down -0.3% at 87.04$/bbl
• WTI MAY 23 down -0.2% at 83.08$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 down 0% at 782.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.02$/bbl at -4.13$/bbl
• The OPEC production cut starting in May, the ongoing halt to Iraqi Kurdistan oil flows from Turkey and signs that Russian exports could be reducing after production cuts all point to a tighter balance.
• Crude time spreads are reflecting the tight supplies with both short and long term spreads near or at the highest since November with a strong rally bringing the WTI prompt spread back into positive territory. The WTI-Brent spread continues to gradually narrow after another draw in stocks at Cushing this week.
  • Brent JUN 23-JUL 23 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.57$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.13$/bbl at 5.75$/bbl
• Gasoline and diesel crack spreads both softened yesterday weighed down by concern for week demand and despite further draws in EIA stocks data due to lower US refinery runs. Gasoline four week average implied demand rose again to the highest levels since December 2021 and up 5.5% from this time last year and despite a drop on the week while distillate implied demand was relatively unchanged from last week.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.8$/bbl at 36.23$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 30.12$/bbl