Crude Holding Steady Before Fed Decision and JMMC Meeting

Crude markets are holding steady this morning ahead of the JMMC meeting and the US Fed rate decision later today. The market has switched focus this week from a potential demand recovery to global economic concerns. A recovery in Chinese oil demand is widely expected later this year but the timing and degree are uncertain.

• Brent APR 23 up 0.1% at 85.54$/bbl
• WTI MAR 23 up 0.2% at 79.06$/bbl
• Gasoil FEB 23 down -0.6% at 910$/mt
• The OPEC advisory committee JMMC meet later today but are expected to keep oil production levels unchanged.
• Forward curve backwardation has softened slightly this week in line with the trend from the wider crude market. The front spreads are seeing a little more support than longer dated spreads with uncertainty over Russian oil supplies from next week. Russian exports have recovered in recent weeks despite current sanctions but there are concerns for the impact of the EU ban on seaborne Russian oil products from 5 Feb.
• US refining margins have recovered from the lowest in about three weeks seen yesterday as weak demand is weighed against tight supplies and with high uncertainty over Russian oil output. Seasonal gasoline inventories were last week reported at the lowest since 2012 with further concern for US production during the upcoming refinery maintenance season. API data last night suggested a build in US crude and product inventories last week.
  • Brent APR 23-MAY 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.3$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.04$/bbl at 3$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 28.81$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.8$/bbl at 51.86$/bbl