Crude Holds Gains, Attacks Continued On The Weekend

Oil prices held onto most of Thursday’s gains falling only moderately on Friday. They were around 4% higher last week driven by the upward revision to the IEA’s demand forecasts, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine. The USD index rose another 0.2% to be up 0.5% on the week.

• WTI fell 0.3% on Friday to $81.00/bbl but was 3.8% higher last week to be up 3.5% in March to date. It has started the week higher at $81.18. The benchmark broke through resistance at $80.85, March 1 high, which has confirmed the resumption of the uptrend. The next level to watch is $81.70. Initial support is at $76.91.
• Brent is down 0.1% to $85.34/bbl but up 4% on the week and currently at $85.44. The break above $84.34 has confirmed the resumption of the uptrend. It rose to a high of $85.55 on Friday, above resistance at $85.47. A clear break of this would open $88.31. Initial support is at $81.27.
• There were further attacks on shipping around Yemen over the weekend after a Houthi leader warned that the attacks would be extended. The group said it had launched missiles and drones at three American and Israeli ships in the Indian Ocean. Yesterday the UK navy reported a missile landing near a LPG tanker but no damage was reported and the US said it destroyed a drone and 5 unmanned surface vessels.
• Last week the Ukraine struck a major Russian refining facility and over the weekend Russia’s defence ministry said it had destroyed drones in a number of regions.