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OIL: Crude Holds Onto Gains, Sanction Developments Being Monitored

OIL

Oil prices are moderately higher after rising Monday/Tuesday on reports that OPEC is considering a further delay to output normalisation due to begin in April. Brent is flat at $75.85/bbl after an intraday high of $76.07 and WTI is 0.1% higher at $71.90/bbl following a peak of $72.11. The USD index is slightly lower.

  • With market attention currently on the supply side, US inventory data out later today is likely to be monitored closely. There has been a substantial crude build since President Trump’s inauguration as flows from Canada rose sharply to beat tariff deadlines. Also, planned refining maintenance may also contribute to higher inventories.
  • The US is tightening sanctions against Iran but oil exporters and consumers continue to find ways around them. Bloomberg reported that imports into China of Iranian crude rose 86% m/m to 1.74mbd in February with increased tanker-to-tanker transfers and other terminals. The US is aiming for Iran’s shipments to be under 10% of current levels.
  • Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan oil are also being considered by the new US administration.
  • Also on the supply side, talks have begun between the US and Russia on Ukraine but a peace is a long way off with Ukraine so far being excluded, Russia not accepting NATO peacekeepers but the US fine with them, and the G7 looking at tightening the current oil price cap on Russian exports.
  • A Ukrainian strike on a Russian pipeline is expected to reduce flows from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea by close to a third while repairs are underway, according to Bloomberg.
  • Later the FOMC meeting minutes are published and the Fed’s Jefferson speaks. In terms of data, there are January US housing starts/permits, NY Fed February services, UK January CPI/PPI and euro area December current account.
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Oil prices are moderately higher after rising Monday/Tuesday on reports that OPEC is considering a further delay to output normalisation due to begin in April. Brent is flat at $75.85/bbl after an intraday high of $76.07 and WTI is 0.1% higher at $71.90/bbl following a peak of $72.11. The USD index is slightly lower.

  • With market attention currently on the supply side, US inventory data out later today is likely to be monitored closely. There has been a substantial crude build since President Trump’s inauguration as flows from Canada rose sharply to beat tariff deadlines. Also, planned refining maintenance may also contribute to higher inventories.
  • The US is tightening sanctions against Iran but oil exporters and consumers continue to find ways around them. Bloomberg reported that imports into China of Iranian crude rose 86% m/m to 1.74mbd in February with increased tanker-to-tanker transfers and other terminals. The US is aiming for Iran’s shipments to be under 10% of current levels.
  • Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan oil are also being considered by the new US administration.
  • Also on the supply side, talks have begun between the US and Russia on Ukraine but a peace is a long way off with Ukraine so far being excluded, Russia not accepting NATO peacekeepers but the US fine with them, and the G7 looking at tightening the current oil price cap on Russian exports.
  • A Ukrainian strike on a Russian pipeline is expected to reduce flows from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea by close to a third while repairs are underway, according to Bloomberg.
  • Later the FOMC meeting minutes are published and the Fed’s Jefferson speaks. In terms of data, there are January US housing starts/permits, NY Fed February services, UK January CPI/PPI and euro area December current account.