- The USD has continued to soften, despite fresh Trump tariff rhetoric. Trump also stated a trade deal with China is possible. This drove USD/CNH lower, but JPY has been the performer so far today.
- US Tsys futures are slightly higher today, with the short-end outperforming. Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps richer across benchmarks, with the 40-year leading.
- China and Hong Kong equities are struggling today driven by a faltering tech rally and broader economic concerns. China's bond curve flattening remained in place.
- Looking ahead, Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Barr and Kugler speak and US jobless claims, January leading index and February Philly Fed business outlook and euro area preliminary February consumer confidence print.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Higher, Trump Speaks, 10yr At 4.517%
- Tsys futures are slightly higher today, with the short-end outperforming. Earlier there was a block seller of TY, however flows have been light, while ranges remain narrow. TU is +00 3/4 at 102-24 3/8, while TY is +03+ at 109-02.
- TY recovered off the intraday low of 108-21+ well, keeping the price clear of the Feb 12 low. Any further reversal higher would expose key resistance and bull trigger at 110-00, the Feb 7 high. For bears, recent weakness resulted in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low, signalling the end of the correction between Jan 13 - Feb 7. Moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 108-00, Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, Jan 13 low and bear trigger.
- Cash tsys yields are trading 1-2bps richer, curves are slightly flatter while the 5yr is outperforming -1.8bps at 4.347%, while the 10yr is -1.6bps at 4.517%. The 2s5s10s fly is -1bps at -8.627
- At the FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, Trump outlined plans to reduce inflation and interest rates by cutting government "waste," which he claimed would boost the stock market and grow the economy by shrinking the federal government. He also pledged to work with Congress to extend the "Trump tax cuts," introducing 100% expensing for new US factories and substantial tax reductions for oil and gas producers.
- Trump also indicated that a new trade deal with China is "possible," referencing a previously successful agreement and emphasizing his "very good relationship" with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a conversation with reporters on Air Force One.
- Goolsbee says once inflation comes down, rates can come down with it.
- Thursday's schedule includes the Philly Fed manufacturing survey alongside weekly jobless claims, while the highlight of the Fedspeak schedule is St Louis's Musalem.
JGBS: Futures Drop On Report That Ueda and Ishiba “Didn’t Discuss Rising Yields”
JGB futures are little changed compared to settlement levels and in the middle of today’s range after Bloomberg reported that BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he "Didn’t discuss rising yields with Ishiba" when he met with Prime Minister as part of regular meetings to exchange views on financial and economic developments.
- Outside of the previously outlined Weekly International Investment Flow, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 4bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest rally.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps richer across benchmarks, with the 40-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.4bp higher at 1.438% after setting a fresh cycle high of 1.448% today.
- The swaps curve has bull-flattened, with rates flat to 4bps lower. Swap spreads are tighter.
- The local calendar will also see an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-15.5-year later.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see National CPI and Jibun Bank PMIs data.
JAPAN DATA: Offshore Investors Preferring Local Bonds To Stocks So Far In 2025
In absolute terms, weekly offshore investment flows were more modest in the week ending Feb 14 for Japan, see the table below. Offshore investors sold local stocks for the third straight week. This brings cumulative outflows for 2025 to date, although the sum is fairly modest at -¥183.5bn. Price action in Japan equities has largely been sideways in recent months. Greater interest may be in markets like Hong Kong, which have seen meaningful outperformance over this period.
- Offshore investors did buy local bonds though, more than offsetting the prior week's outflow. The bias for this segment has been fairly consistent inflows since the start of the year. JGB yields continue to push higher amid firmer domestic data/BoJ tightening expectations.
- In terms of Japan outbound flows, we saw local investors continue to buy offshore bonds, after last week's surge. Again, the bias in this segment has generally been for outflows since the start of year.
- Last week also saw a recovery in offshore equity purchases, albeit modestly compared to the prior week's net selling. In 9 out of the past 10 weeks we have seen local investors buy overseas equities.
Table 1: Japan Weekly Offshore Investment Flows
| Billion Yen | Week ending Feb 14 | Prior Week |
| Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | -352.8 | -384.4 |
| Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 788.8 | -187.8 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | 241.0 | 1755.6 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | 345.4 | -1267.4 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Strong Jobs Data Weighs On Market, AU-US 10Y Diff Back Above Flat
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -1.5) are 3-5bps weaker, with the futures flatter curve, after today’s Employment Report.
- January employment was higher than expected rising 44k driven by a 54.1k rise in full-time jobs. The unemployment rate still ticked up 0.1pp to 4.1%, as expected, but was driven by a new record participation rate up 0.1pp to 67.3%.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 4bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps cheaper on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +2bps.
- Swap rates are 2bps higher on the day, 3-4bps higher than pre-data levels.
- The bills strip is flat to -2 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps firmer across meetings after the data. A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 11% probability, with a cumulative 42bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs and the RBA”s Parliamentary Testimony alongside the AOFM's planned sale of A$700mn of 2.5% May-30 bond.
- TCV has launched a new TCV 5.5% Sep-39 fixed-rate benchmark with initial price guidance of EFP + 106-109bp. Pricing is expected to take place tomorrow. Barrenjoey Markets, CBA and UBS are joint lead managers.
RBA: MNI RBA Review-February 2025: Cautious Easing, Not In A Hurry
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- Lower-than-expected Q4 underlying inflation resulted in the RBA’s trimmed mean profile sitting under 3%, the top of the band, allowing the RBA to begin its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut to 4.10%.
- However, the move was very cautious and Governor Bullock warned that the market pricing used in the forecasts, which assumed a cash rate of 3.6% in Q4 2025, didn’t bring inflation back to the 2.5% mid-point of the band. The staff forecasts had trimmed mean staying at 2.7% from Q2 2025 on.
- A 25bp rate cut in April is given a 14% probability, with a cumulative 45bps of easing priced by year-end.
- The next monetary policy meeting is held March 31-April 1 and will be the first meeting with the new dual board structure. The cautious February rate cut seems to rule out back-to-back easing but so does this structural change, which includes appointments made by the Treasurer and a cut at its first meeting may be seen as political.
RBA: Unchanged Rates Resulted In CPI Undershoot, Need More Good Inflation News
Deputy Governor Hauser has just spoken with Bloomberg and confirmed that the Board reached a “clear consensus” to cut rates on Tuesday and one of the main reasons for the move was a scenario where policy was not eased and it resulted in inflation coming in below the band mid-point at 2.5%. Going forward though, he doesn’t share the market’s confidence about rate cuts and that there won’t be one piece of data that will trigger the next move. The RBA continues to focus “rigorously on inflation”.
- Hauser reiterated that the rate path currently priced in by markets resulted in underlying inflation staying above 2.5% but the central bank could be “wrong” and if it is then the Board will respond, but market pricing is currently not its central case. But contained inflation is not a “done deal yet” and more good news on this front is needed.
- He said that today’s January labour market data was “incredibly strong” and more data is needed to understand if there is spare capacity.
- The RBA is “sure” that its policy is still restrictive but with estimates of the neutral rate ranging from 1% to 4%, it is too “vague” to be useful and little weight is put on those approximations.
- There are so many unknowns that tariff scenario analysis results in a huge range of outcomes and the RBA is waiting to see how trade policy develops. But the uncertainty is a problem, as it is likely to delay economic decisions which could way on growth. Hauser pointed out thought that historically Australia has been flexible in adjusting to changing global conditions.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Labour Market Strength Continues, RBA Cautious
January new jobs were higher than expected at 44k after an upwardly-revised December at 60k. They may have been even stronger without the impact of holidays, which also impacted hours worked. The unemployment rate rose 0.1pp to 4.1% as expected due to the participation rate rising 0.1pp to 67.3%, a new record. RBA Governor Bullock said that the tightness of the labour market was the strongest argument to keep rates on hold in February and at this point it is likely to keep the Board cautious about any further easing.
- Australia posted its 10th consecutive monthly jobs gain bringing growth to 3.5% y/y, highest since May 2023, up from 3.1% y/y. There is enough confidence in the outlook to support full-time (FT) jobs growth and likely labour hoarding. While part-time (PT) fell 10.1k this was after +83.7k in December and it is still growing at 3.5% y/y. FT jobs rose 54.1k after falling 23.7k and are up 3.5% y/y.
Australia employment y/y%
- The ABS noted that “as in the past three Januarys, in January 2025 we again saw more people than usual who had a job but were waiting to start or return to work”. Holidays also reduced hours worked (-0.4% m/m), driven by FT (-0.7%) but a lot less than last January (-2.9%), as it returned to pre-pandemic trends.
- Other indicators showed that the labour market remained tight with the underemployment rate steady at 6.0%, 0.7pp below January 2024, and youth unemployment at 9.1%, 0.9pp below the August peak.
- The labour force grew by 67k in January after 69k, thus exceeding employment growth. Therefore, the number of unemployed rose 23.4k last month and is up 4.2% y/y. The economy keeps creating jobs but not enough given the strong growth in the labour force. Working age population grew another 0.2% m/m to be up 2.3% y/y down from 3.0% in Q3 2023.
Australia underemployment %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
BONDS: NZGBS: Mixed Close But Off Cheaps, Strong Demand Meets Supply
NZGBs closed mixed, with the 2-year benchmark 4bps cheaper but the 10-year 1bp richer.
- The local market suffered some negative spillover from ACGBs after the January Employment Report surprised significantly on the upside.
- Nevertheless, all benchmarks finished well off the session’s worst levels, after today’s supply showed strong demand. Cover ratios across the lines ranged from 4.64x (May-41) to 5.14x (Apr-27).
- The move away from session cheaps was aided by cash US tsys, which are flat to 4bps richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Swap rates closed flat to 2bp higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ Governor Orr spoke to parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Select Committee earlier today. He expressed optimism about inflation being within the 1-3% target range and justified a 50bps cut in the OCR to 3.75%. He indicated that further rate reductions are expected.
- RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings today, flat to 4bps firmer than yesterday’s pre-RBNZ policy decision levels.
- Currently, 27bps of easing is priced for April, with a total of 62bps expected by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data.
RBNZ: MNI RBNZ Review - February 2025: Slower Easing Pace Now Likely
Download Full Report Here
- The RBNZ cut rates by 50bp to 3.75% this week, the third consecutive 50bp move, as was unanimously expected. This brings cumulative easing this cycle to 175bp. It appears that the MPC is prepared to ease further in 2025, if the economy develops as it expects, but at a slower pace than it has been.
- The revised OCR path has an additional 50bp of 2025 easing than in November and Governor Orr confirmed that the MPC is looking to cut 25bp at both its April 9 and May 28 meetings. It is now forecast to end this year at around the mid-point of the 2.5-3.5% range that the RBNZ estimates as neutral, down from just above 3.5% in November.
- Currently, 27bps of easing is priced for April, with a total of 60bps expected by November 2025.
FOREX: USD/JPY Eyeing 150.00 Test, AUD & NZD Aided By CNH Gains
The USD BBDXY index sits around 0.20% lower, last around 1289.5. Yen has been the main outperformer today, up 0.80%, but as the session has progressed other G10 currencies have ticked higher against the USD, particularly AUD and NZD.
- USD/JPY weakness accelerated as the pair broken down through Feb 7 lows of 150.93. Futures activity spiked to highs for the week. Yen has been aided by a pullback in US yields, while equity sentiment in the Asia Pac region has mostly been negative.
- This weighed on AUD and NZD, but this afternoon both currencies have regained ground. Lower USD/CNH levels after US President Trump said a trade deal with China was possible has likely helped. AUD/USD was last near 0.6365, up 0.30%, NZD close to 0.5720. Earlier Australian labor market data was also stronger than expected, with a surge in full time jobs.
- BoJ Governor Ueda also stated he didn't discuss rising JGB yields with PM Ishiba at their regular meeting to discuss economic matters. This may suggests comfort around the broader tightening BoJ backdrop. USD/JPY move to fresh lows sub 150.30 this afternoon. A break sub 150.00 could see 149.69, the Dec 9 low from last year targeted.
- JPY and AUD have accounted for the largest FX options volumes so far today.
- Looking ahead, Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Barr and Kugler speak and US jobless claims, January leading index and February Philly Fed business outlook and euro area preliminary February consumer confidence print.
ASIA STOCKS: China & HK Equities Drop As Tech Rally Runs Out Of Steam
China and Hong Kong equities are struggling today driven by a faltering tech rally and broader economic concerns. The HSI is 1.55% lower, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.5%, with tech giants like Meituan (-6.4%), Alibaba (-3.3%), Tencent (-2.6%), Kuaishou (-8.4%), and Bilibili (-5.1%) leading the losses amid profit-taking and skepticism about the sustainability of the tech surge without stronger economic fundamentals, while Alibaba is also expected to release earnings later today.
- The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also declined by as much as 2.4%, its steepest drop in over two weeks, pressured by Meituan’s costly social security expansion plans for delivery workers and anticipation of earnings from Alibaba, Bilibili, and NetEase later today, however we have clawed some of those losses back to last trade down 1.50%.
- In mainland equities, the CSI 300 Index and Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, reflecting cautious sentiment.
- The tech-driven rally, which has added roughly US$280b to Hong Kong’s market value this year, fueled by DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough, is starting to showing signs of fatigue, with analysts like Goldman Sachs emphasizing the need for robust policy stimulus to address China’s macroeconomic challenges.
- The China Securities Journal reports that investments in Chinese tech stocks are "increasingly crowded," with the tech sector comprising 46% of total market trading, nearing a historical high of 50% from April 2023. Fund managers are cautioning about valuation risks due to a "slightly overheated" trading sentiment, particularly in sub-segments like cloud computing, machine vision, and industrial software, while areas like optical fiber cable and AI chips remain less saturated, pre BBG.
- Adding to the bearish mood, FOMC minutes were released overnight and indicated a reluctance to cut rates soon, citing inflation risks from potential US trade and immigration policies under Trump, further dampening investor confidence in the region’s markets.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Broadly Lower As Tech Rally Runs Out Of Steam
Asian equity markets are lower today as concerns over U.S. geopolitical shifts and tariff uncertainties dampened risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by as much as 1.1%, with notable declines in Japan’s Topix (-1.25%) and Nikkei (-1.4%), Australia’s ASX 200 (-1.25%), and HSI (-1.25%), where Chinese tech stocks slumped over 2%—dragged by Meituan (-5.8%) and Alibaba (-4.6%) ahead of its earnings—pausing a DeepSeek-fueled rally. The yen strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since December, amid speculation of a BOJ rate hike, while Tsys yields edged lower and gold held near record highs, reflecting a cautious market mood driven by U.S.-Ukraine tensions, Fed signals of steady rates, and Trump’s mixed trade rhetoric involving potential China deals and a 25% lumber tariff.
- The ASX 200 drop was driven by a rising unemployment rate and declines in banking and mining stocks. New Zealand’s NZX 50 fell 1.2%.
- Japan’s benchmarks are lower as a stronger yen pressured exporters like Toyota (-1.5%), with additional selling in auto and pharmaceutical sectors amid U.S. tariff threats on cars, chips, and drugs.
- South Korea’s KOSPI is 0.8% lower, with auto stocks like Hyundai Motor (-0.49%) and shipbuilders like HD Korea Shipbuilding (-5.02%) leading losses after Trump’s tariff comments. Taiwan's TAIEX is 0.40% lower.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equity Flows Muted, India Continues To Sell Selling
Muted flows on Wednesday, with no real direction. South Korea did see some inflows following semiconductor names rallying on key policy announcements. India continue to see outflows, although the rate of outflows has slowed over the past few days
- South Korea: Recorded $217m in inflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$58m. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.277b. The 5-day average is -$12m, better than the 20-day average of -$89m but worse than the 100-day average of -$107m.
- Taiwan: Posted $115m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$362m. YTD flows remain negative at -$2.045b. The 5-day average is +$72m, better than the 20-day average of +$8m and the 100-day average of -$56m.
- India: Recorded $245m in outflows on Tuesday, bringing the 5-day total to -$2.108b. YTD outflows remain heavy at -$11.682b. The 5-day average is -$422m, worse than the 20-day average of -$315m and the 100-day average of -$234m.
- Indonesia: Posted $69m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$66m. YTD flows remain negative at -$626m. The 5-day average is -$13m, better than the 20-day average of -$23m and the 100-day average of -$31m.
- Thailand: Saw $31m in inflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$165m. YTD flows remain negative at -$121m. The 5-day average is +$33m, better than the 20-day average of +$4m and the 100-day average of -$17m.
- Malaysia: Registered $41m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$154m. YTD flows are negative at -$885m. The 5-day average is -$31m, worse than the 20-day average of -$23m and the 100-day average of -$28m.
- Philippines: Recorded $9m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$46m. YTD flows remain negative at -$158m. The 5-day average is -$9m, worse than the 20-day average of -$4m and aligning with the 100-day average of -$4m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Supply & Demand Uncertainty Is Reducing Market Volatility
Oil prices are moderately lower today following industry-based data showing another crude stock build in the US. It had been rising this week on reports that OPEC was considering another delay to its output normalisation. WTI is down 0.4% to $71.82/bbl, close to the intraday low, and Brent is 0.3% lower at $75.80/bbl. The USD index is down 0.2%.
- The numerous US policy changes and statements are increasing uncertainty and resulting in oil prices range trading as the market waits for developments to give it clearer direction. The uncertainty over the path for tariffs, sanctions and US oil production has clouded the global demand and supply outlook. As a result, market volatility is its lowest since July, according to Bloomberg.
- Today US President Trump said that a trade deal with China is still possible after 10% tariffs were imposed on all imports from China this month and China retaliated with taxes on US oil and gas.
- Bloomberg reported that US inventories rose a further 3.34 mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data, higher than expected. There was a gasoline build of 2.8mn but a distillate drawdown of 2.7mn. Stocks have been rising due to increased flows from Canada to beat tariff deadlines and planned US refinery maintenance. The official EIA data is out later today.
- Later the Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Barr and Kugler speak and US jobless claims, January leading index and February Philly Fed business outlook and euro area preliminary February consumer confidence print.
GOLD: Rally Resumes as Gold Approaches New Highs.
- Gold had a day of consolidation in the US trading day, finishing off new highs.
- Gold continues to benefit from the uncertainty around the levelling of tariffs, tending to rally on days when new tariffs are being threatened by the Trump administration.
- Opening at US$2,933.58 gold rallied steadily all day to reach $2,944.65 into the Asian afternoon trading session.
- AngloGold announced a $1bn profit for 2024, with FCF up to $942m with output up to 2.7m ounces, prior to the onboarding of the newly acquired Centamin PLC.
- Gold Fields reported a 77% y/y increase in net income to $1.25bn.
- Speculation that the US could re-value its gold holdings continues with the President stating “we will make sure everything is there and everything is fine.”
- In further signs that environmental controls will be wound back, President Trump is fast tracking commodity projects with a gold mine Idaho amongst them.
- Barrick Gold has signed an agreement with the Mali government to end the despite over mining assets, causing their shares to rise for a second straight day.
SOUTH KOREA: Consumer Confidence Up, Though Pessimism Still in Charge.
- February’s Consumer Sentiment Index Jumped 4.0 points to stand at 95.2.
- Whilst still pessimistic, the future outlook improved to 93 from 89.
- Consumers see their current living standards unchanged at 87, whilst their expectation for household income rose 1 point to 97, offset by expectations of higher household spending at 106 (plus 3 for the month).
- Current and future domestic economic conditions remain extremely poor at 55 (+4) and 73 (+8) respectively.
- Consumers surveyed expect inflation to be at 2.7% over the next year.
- A reading below 100 indicates that households on balance are more pessimistic.
- The BOK next meets on February 25 with the market consensus that they will cut rates by 25bps.
CHINA: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged
- Today’s fixing of the 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates was as expected with no change.
- The 1-year is the reference rate for corporate loans and the 5-year reference rate used by banks for mortgages.
- For a fourth straight month, we did not expect any change in the rates charged with the 1-year steady at 3.10% and the 5-year at 3.60%.
- Over the weekend the PBOC Governor indicated that easing of monetary policy can be expected as well as fiscal support.
- China’s top legislature begins its annual parliamentary meeting on March 5 where investors will wait to see how the recently set tone for the economy will translate into policy.
CHINA: Bond Curve Flattening Continues
- As markets await the outcome of the top legislators’ annual parliamentary meeting in early March, the bond market theme in place for some time continued today.
The curve (10yr – 2yr) has been flattening and moves today sees the curve the flattest it has been for some time.
- From yesterday’s close, the 2YR CGB is higher by 2bps again today at 1.39%, a significant move from its close prior to the Lunar New Year at 1.25%.
- The 10YR CGB has been somewhat more resilient, with intra-day moves limited since the holidays and today’s move is just 1bp higher to 1.70%, up from the 27 January close of 1.64%.
- The curve flattening poses interesting challenges for policy yet what is behind it may pose a bigger risk.
- With liquidity tight, there is evidence that investors are selling shorter dated (2YR) CGBs to move longer into the 10YR for the yield pick-up.
- This yield pickup recognizes the flatness of the curve and at current levels the added yield advantage has reduced significantly.
- A flat curve is traditionally a sign that investors are less confident around the economic outlook, something that won’t go unnoticed by authorities who have long regarded a steep yield curve as evidence of prosperity.
- Naturally China has many levers to pull and as the PBOC Governor pointed out of the weekend, monetary and fiscal policy can be expected at a time when further issuance can be expected from regional governments at the long end.
- A change in monetary policy and longer dated issuance from regional governments could see the yield curve steepen, challenging those investors who in recent months have moved longer out on the curve to pick up yield.
ASIA FX: Yuan Up On Trade Deal Hopes, USD/CNH Nears 100-day EMA Support
North East Asia currencies are moving up against the USD, albeit lagging yen gains. CNH and spot KRW are both up around 0.25% versus the USD. TWD is a laggard though, little changed so far today. Broader USD trends are softer, with yen, AUD and NZD higher at this stage. The USD BBDXY index is at 1290, which is still above recent lows.
- Earlier remarks from US President Trump that a trade deal with China is possible, weighed on USD/CNH. The pair towards 7.2700 before stabilizing, but we track near 7.2660 in latest dealings, amid broader USD weakness. The softer US yield backdrop is also likely helping at the margins. China and Hong Kong equities have softened, but this hasn't impact FX sentiment. Downside focus in USD/CNH could rest near 7.2600, which is close to the 100-day support point.
- Spot USD/KRW got to fresh lows of 1436.6 in earlier dealings. These levels were last seen in late Jan of this year. We sit slightly higher now, close to 1438. Broader USD weakness is offsetting some pullback in local equities. Earlier data showed a rise in consumer confidence, but we are still sub pre martial levels from late last year.
- USD/TWD is very steady holding under 32.80 at this stage. Like South Korea, local equities have edged down. Later on, we get Jan export orders for Taiwan.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 20/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | Construction Production |
| 20/02/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** |  GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | * |  CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 20/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 20/02/2025 | 1435/0935 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 20/02/2025 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 20/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 20/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 20/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 20/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 20/02/2025 | 1705/1205 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 20/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond |
| 20/02/2025 | 1930/1430 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 21/02/2025 | 2200/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 20/02/2025 | 2200/1700 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 21/02/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** |  JP | CPI |
| 21/02/2025 | 0001/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 21/02/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/02/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 21/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** |  IT | HICP (f) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 21/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 21/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 21/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 21/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 21/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |