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Crude Implied Vols Drift Lower and Put Skew Narrows

OIL OPTIONS

Crude oil ATM implied volatility continues to drift lower while the put skews narrow on supply risks for the second half of this year and with improved risk sentiment from US debt ceiling talks.

  • Brent second month implied volatility is down to 34.4% today and WTI is down to 35.5% with futures holding within approximately a 4$/bbl range between about 73.5$/bbl and 77.5$/bbl since 5 May.
  • The Brent second month 25 delta call-put skew has narrowed to the highest since 8 March at -4.6% from a low of around -7.3% in late April. The WTI second month spread is also at the narrowest level seen this month at -5.6%.
  • The longer dated skews have followed the trend higher with the Brent Dec23 call-put skew closing in to -5.2% and WTI to -6.0% with potential for tighter supplies later this year and uncertainty over OPEC+ intentions at the upcoming ministerial meeting at the start of June.
    • Brent JUL 23 up 0.2% at 76.13$/bbl
    • WTI JUL 23 up 0.2% at 72.18$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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