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OIL: Crude Lower On Fri But Posts Another Weekly Rise With US Sanctions In Focus

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Oil prices were down on Friday as a Gaza ceasefire deal approached but they ended the week higher boosted by cold weather and sanctions on Russia impacting buyer behaviour. President-elect Trump’s inauguration is January 20 and his energy policy continues to be a significant uncertainty in oil markets. 

  • WTI fell 0.8% to $78.04 after trending lower through the European/US sessions. The benchmark rose almost 2% last week and is up 8.8% this month. Initial resistance is at $80.77 with support at $77.24.
  • Brent was 0.7% lower at $80.73 after a low of $80.50. It rose 1.2% over the week and is 8.2% higher in January to date. The benchmark remains in an uptrend with key resistance at $83.79 with initial support at $79.62.
  • The US’ targeting of Russia’s shadow fleet has driven shipping costs up sharply resulting in India and China, significant consumers of Russian oil, looking to alternative sources. Prospective tariffs on Canadian oil imports into the US are also supporting oil prices.
  • China’s gasoline exports fell 23.8% y/y in December and distillate 89% y/y. Total refining volumes fell 1.6% in 2024. Markets have been concerned about the strength of China’s oil demand given weak domestic consumption but soft product exports are also likely to weigh on crude imports.
  • CFTC data showed that new long positions in WTI fell 6.4% last week while they rose 7.2% for gasoline. 
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Oil prices were down on Friday as a Gaza ceasefire deal approached but they ended the week higher boosted by cold weather and sanctions on Russia impacting buyer behaviour. President-elect Trump’s inauguration is January 20 and his energy policy continues to be a significant uncertainty in oil markets. 

  • WTI fell 0.8% to $78.04 after trending lower through the European/US sessions. The benchmark rose almost 2% last week and is up 8.8% this month. Initial resistance is at $80.77 with support at $77.24.
  • Brent was 0.7% lower at $80.73 after a low of $80.50. It rose 1.2% over the week and is 8.2% higher in January to date. The benchmark remains in an uptrend with key resistance at $83.79 with initial support at $79.62.
  • The US’ targeting of Russia’s shadow fleet has driven shipping costs up sharply resulting in India and China, significant consumers of Russian oil, looking to alternative sources. Prospective tariffs on Canadian oil imports into the US are also supporting oil prices.
  • China’s gasoline exports fell 23.8% y/y in December and distillate 89% y/y. Total refining volumes fell 1.6% in 2024. Markets have been concerned about the strength of China’s oil demand given weak domestic consumption but soft product exports are also likely to weigh on crude imports.
  • CFTC data showed that new long positions in WTI fell 6.4% last week while they rose 7.2% for gasoline.