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(K3) Downtrend Remains Intact


Correction Appears To Be A Bear Flag


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Crude Markets Flat in Early Session


Crude is steady this morning after yesterday’s strength on potential easing of Chinese lockdowns fades out. Instead, the crude markets are focusing on inflation and recession concerns.

  • Brent DEC 22 down 0% at 92.36$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 22 down 0% at 84.47$/bbl
  • Gasoil NOV 22 down -2.3% at 1048.25$/mt
  • WTI-Brent down -0.2$/bbl at -7.89$/bbl
  • China is considering reducing the mandatory quarantine period for people entering the country as the market looks for signs that easing restrictions could lead to a recovery in oil demand. The market is pinning hopes on Chinese recovery but it’s not there yet.
    • •The US announced the final 15mn bbl release from the SPR this week of the 180mn bbls commitment but Biden said further releases remain on the table. Oil product export bans remain on the table too but threats on that front have been muted.
  • Brent DEC 22-JAN 23 down -0.07$/bbl at 1.86$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.02$/bbl at 12.03$/bbl
  • The crude forward curve remains in strong backwardation after time spreads extend the rally from yesterday. Supply risks come from the EU ban on Russian crude and G7 oil price cap combined with the OPEC+ target output reduction for Nov and Dec and other supply issues such as the delayed return of the Kashagan oil field.
  • US 321 crack down -7.7$/bbl at 33.24$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down -6.4$/bbl at 19.01$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -10.4$/bbl at 61.69$/bbl
  • Diesel cracks and Gasoil time spreads eased yesterday with the news of the end of the strike at some TotalEnergies refineries and optimism the rest will follow. They have dropped from five refineries out of action down to two, while product avaialbaility at filling stations is improving significantly. The easing strikes have also softened diesel cracks on the US East Coast this week.
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