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Crude Markets Start the Week Flat Balancing Supply and Demand Fears

OIL

Crude is flat early in the session following on from last week when global demand concerns and inflation data set the scene for oil markets on top of lacklustre product demand in leading economies.

  • Brent NOV 22 unchanged at 91.35$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 22 down -0.2% at 84.91$/bbl
  • Gasoil OCT 22 down -0.7% at 946.75$/mt
  • WTI-Brent down -0.23$/bbl at -6.79$/bbl
  • The oil markets still have the overhanging supply pressure from the upcoming Russian oil and product bans from the EU while opposing that factor is ongoing uncertainty over the future oil demand from China as they continue with their Covid Zero policy. Reports last week that the US will not replenish SPR until after fiscal year 23 added to the downward sentiment.
  • China has started easing COVID curbs in Chengdu, a southwestern city of more than 21 million people but its refining industry data last week showed Aug throughput just 0.9% higher than July. China is considering extra oil product export quotas to help boost the economy.
  • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 up 0.08$/bbl at 1.38$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 0.12$/bbl at 9.8$/bbl
  • Upside supply risks from Russia, Kazakhstan, Libya and other underproducing OPEC members are maintaining curve backwardation.
  • US 321 crack up 0.3$/bbl at 27.12$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 15.97$/bbl, US ULSD crack up 1$/bbl at 49.4$/bbl
  • Diesel crack spreads fell even faster than crude last week after sluggish EIA demand data earlier in the week added to the wider bearish market sentiment but are finding strength on the back of weak inventories ahead of winter in most global hubs. Gasoline markets are relatively stable so far today.
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