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Crude Off Highs But Still Up On The Day

OIL

Oil prices are off their intraday highs but still up on the day supported by a deterioration in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. WTI has held above $80 and is up 0.4% to $80.11/bbl after a high of $80.32. Brent is 0.2% higher at $84.40 after a high of $84.64. The USD index is up 0.1%.

  • Oil’s geopolitical risk premium rose after an altercation at the Rafah border crossing between Israel and Egypt killed an Egyptian soldier and Israeli armed forces moved into central Rafah. Houthi rebels also attacked a bulk carrier off Yemen.
  • Industry inventory data from the API are released today with the official EIA numbers on Thursday. The data will be monitored closely for the supply/demand situation in the US last week ahead of the start of the US driving season.
  • On the supply side, this weekend’s online OPEC+ meeting is widely anticipated with its 2mbd output cuts expected to be extended into H2. But compliance with quotas has been patchy and will continue to be monitored.
  • Later the Fed’s Williams speaks and the Beige Book is published. In terms of data, US Richmond & Dallas Fed indices and German preliminary CPIs for May print.
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