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OIL: Crude Off Intraday Highs, PMIs Released Later Today

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Oil prices are off their intraday high to be down slightly during APAC trading today but are still close to the three-month high. Brent rose to $76.89/bbl but is now down 0.1% to $76.47. WTI reached $74.39/bbl before trending down to $73.90. The USD index is down 0.1% but off its intraday low.

  • Some Middle Eastern pricing is signalling that demand has picked up from Asia and markets are waiting for prices from Saudi Arabia to confirm this. Crude from sanction-hit Iran and Russia has become scarcer, as sanctions target their shadow fleets.
  • The market continues to expect excess supply in 2025 with demand from China likely to remain soft and non-OPEC supply forecast to rise with the risk OPEC+ decides to begin output normalisation. Morgan Stanley is projecting a surplus of around 700kbd this year. But there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the new US administration and geopolitics.
  • Later the Fed’s Cook speaks. US & European December services/composite PMIs and preliminary December German CPI data are released.  
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Oil prices are off their intraday high to be down slightly during APAC trading today but are still close to the three-month high. Brent rose to $76.89/bbl but is now down 0.1% to $76.47. WTI reached $74.39/bbl before trending down to $73.90. The USD index is down 0.1% but off its intraday low.

  • Some Middle Eastern pricing is signalling that demand has picked up from Asia and markets are waiting for prices from Saudi Arabia to confirm this. Crude from sanction-hit Iran and Russia has become scarcer, as sanctions target their shadow fleets.
  • The market continues to expect excess supply in 2025 with demand from China likely to remain soft and non-OPEC supply forecast to rise with the risk OPEC+ decides to begin output normalisation. Morgan Stanley is projecting a surplus of around 700kbd this year. But there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the new US administration and geopolitics.
  • Later the Fed’s Cook speaks. US & European December services/composite PMIs and preliminary December German CPI data are released.