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Crude Oil Eyes Bull Trigger and Gold Surges With Golden Cross

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil sees a seventh day of gains although despite that a survey of shale drillers in the US say prices remain too low to output materially with WTI at $89/bbl needed to boost output by “a lot” (although just $64/bbl to be profitable). WTI is up 8% on the week to nearly draw level ytd.
  • Earlier, Exxon announced it’s preparing to start up its $1.2B Texas refinery expansion, beginning the 250bpd expansion by Jan 31.
  • WTI is +1.6% at $79.67, next eyeing the bull trigger at $81.50 (Jan 3 high).
  • Brent is +1.2% at $85.04, next eyeing key resistance at $87.00 (Jan 3 high).
  • Gold is +1.2% at $1920.5, perhaps helped by technical developments with relatively limited further USD index depreciation and Treasury yields rebounding. Instead, a golden cross with the 50-dayMA exceeding the 200-day MA for the first time since Feb’22 appears to have driven trade. Two resistance levels cleared today, next lies $1934.4 (Apr 25, 2022 high).
  • Weekly moves: WTI +8%, Brent +8.3%, Gold +2.9%, US nat gas -7.8%, EU TTF -6.8%


WTI 1st future (white) and gold (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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