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Crude Options Holding Bearish Skew

OIL OPTIONS

The near term crude option call-put skew continues to edge wider to extend the trend seen since 17 November despite OPEC+ supply uncertainty. The market is weighing a possible supply surplus next year due to weaker global demand growth than seen in 2023 with better than expected supply from countries such as US and Iran.

  • Brent crude second month 25 delta call-put skew is today around -5.6% after the Jan24 options contract expiry earlier this week. The WTI second month 25 delta call-put skew is near the lowest since May down at about -6.25%.
  • The longer term Dec24 crude option call-put skews are also slightly lower this week with Brent down at -6.6% and WTI at -6.95%.
  • Crude second month ATM implied volatility has been relatively unchanged throughout November with Brent today at 36.8% and WTI at 35.7%.
  • Brent aggregate traded options volumes were yesterday below normal at 111k while WTI volumes were 128k. Brent crude futures aggregate volumes were also still below normal despite an increase on the day to 0.92m and WTI at 0.74m yesterday.
    • Brent JAN 24 up 1.2% at 82.68$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 24 up 1.4% at 77.45$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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